10 Feb 2007 the West was on the same day as usual. The next international conference on security in Munich, the routine of meaningless speeches, round of diplomatic cliches, lies, falsehood and demagoguery. All as before and because Robert gates – us Secretary of defense was frankly bored… Bored until the podium was not up to Vladimir Putin…
Up to the Munich speech of Russian leader did not foretell the coming on the planet of a political storm. The world ceased to be the Grand arena of confrontation between the two superpowers has already been seventeen years that the lazy and finally calmed down. The planet like a chess Board is divided into two camps long ago turned into a bunch geopolitical pawns without a sovereign political will, solid stance, personal autonomy and authority are delegated to overseas the “king”. Robert gates did not expect difficulties and was in this opinion is justified.
But even so, being “old wolf” who spent all the stages of a Grand Cold war on the front lines, gates instinctively felt a straining heard on stage invited the President of Russia Vladimir Putin.
It was in this sense something ambivalent. Something tickled the Ego the all-powerful Minister of defense. The fact that despite the nervousness, you did a nice observation of how the leader “yesterday” is still the most powerful country on the planet – the only equal to America on this Earth, today, humbly begin to read your next colonial praises.
“Anxiety – reflex old habits”, thought gates and ordernow alertness, the Minister tried a little more relaxed to sit on his angular chair…
“Damn the Europeans” – he grinned. “Again, this is a media show with stationary stools. If I knew the world about which the carved chairs and leather sofas each day holds each of those sitting here, ass – tore the stomach from laughter. And when you consider that the cost of one such Lodge and does not cover the whole of this lousy hall together with all its technological interiors – local stools can be done and comfortably”.
“What a stupid thoughts?” – straightened himself gates, “to laugh a lot – not the best omen”. And frowning, carefully focused on what is happening around the changes…
Meanwhile, the minutes slowly ran its course and pause allotted for the preparation of the next Rapporteur, rapidly expired… Putin took a deep breath, exhale, and began the same speech, which was destined to become a turning point for the notorious unipolar world.
ANALYTICS AND EVALUATION
The beginning of the report, the Russian President struck a”valued friends and partners” in the real “cold shower”:
“This time I have no need to speak in roundabout, pleasant but empty diplomatic terms”, – he said. “The conference format allows me to avoid excessive politeness and allows you to say what I really think about the problems of the present international security” and not only about it…
The end of the performance did not disappoint. So much so that everyone in the room became apparent after seventeen years after the collapse of Soviet of the USSR, Russia reiterated its firm intention to return to the bosom of geopolitical superpowers of this planet.
Since then ten years have passed. And each subsequent year of that period more and more stressed indefinite validity uttered by Vladimir Putin’s Munich theses.
THE THESIS FIRST
“… don’t want anyone to suspect aggression,” – said the Russian leader. “But the system of international relations is mathematics and she also must have no personal dimension. We as a country are obliged to respond to external threats. How is a question. Also, how are you? To build a multibillion-dollar missile system and a system of external missile defence? Or, bearing in mind our current capabilities — economic, financial and other — to reply to this asymmetrically?”…
“Asymmetrically” – that will be the most important essence of Russian foreign policy doctrine that all subsequent performance years. Simultaneously, the notification said bore and a preventive warning the collective West, the message is that Russia will not go the way of the thoughtless and unnecessary arms race. But removed to observe the actions of the US and the North Atlantic Alliance, from now on not going.
The answer will be sure, but it will be quite different than you assume.
Since the asymmetric reactions has really become our universal and reliable tool of the state.
Instead of mirroring the restrictions of entry to hundreds of Western officials, Russia has stopped the import of European products. Instead of empty conversations with the satellites to NATO, Russia has regained Crimea. Instead of attempting rapprochement with the United States and Brussels, Russia turned eastward.
The West initiated sectoral sanctions? Has brought down energy prices? Built around our country’s diplomatic barriers? Actively increased the arms race? All this is our country, ten years have said cold and very not standard.
Sanctions from the United States, was opposed to the restrictive measures of the European Union wallets, and reduce the cost of the barrel, the ruble devaluation and the reduction of losses due to the difference in exchange rates of isolation – extension, the arms race – not equal the answer to a variety of media – quality product “RT”, diplomacy “scream” diplomacy “actions”, and so on and so on…
Even the construction of a Euro-American PRO received an unexpected and extremely effective counter – action.
Is expected from our side of silence, or at least, the construction of such stationary military bases, Russia took on combat duty a number of nuclear submarines of the fourth generation, gave to the troops the latest mobile unique system of defense, deployed tactical complexes “Iskander” in the Crimea and in Kaliningrad, has demonstrated missiles capable of hitting US over the pole, and finally added into a single system of air defense missile capabilities of neighboring Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Refused Russia and the West from the expected parity placement of the radar abroad their long borders. Instead, with the introduction of three new radar stations of the “Voronezh” in Orsk, Barnaul and Yeniseisk our country for the first time since the Soviet Union has restored a single radar field around the perimeter of their territories.
In the end, properly applied by Moscow asymmetric approach “Iskander” confidently hold in fear all the countries of Eastern Europe (tearfully asked to host the American missile defense), most of the nuclear submarines of the Russian Federation through the Pacific ocean in the distance close to the American territories, and cruise missiles at any moment can flight around the EU is guaranteed to strike back via the North pole.
At the same time on the defense and the political sphere, not in a predictable Russian reactions is not limited. In the words of the Munich speech of the President was warning Washington of non-intervention in questions of economic security of our country. But of course the West pretended that he was not heard.
A year later Washington started the war in Georgia and South Ossetia, and later, initiated the tumultuous events in neighboring Ukraine. Unexpectedly, however, in response it was demonstrated discouraging results of what is really inexplicable is the threat of”asymmetric military response”…
Touched by the demonstration, and economic aspects. Cost US at some point own hysteria, voice of the threat of exclusion of our country from the international settlement system swift, as the Central Bank of Russia immediately launched a swap line with the people’s Bank of China. Its volume amounted to about 150 billion yuan, but the important thing was not he, but the fact that at the same time, state organizations of the BRICS has successfully carried out the trial and extremely demonstrative transfer of funds from Moscow to Beijing and back. And more importantly – did it with no intermediate conversion rates in dollar equivalent.
This one single transaction around the world was shown a new, real and fully working mechanism, able at any moment to stand on the replacement of previously uncontested American swift(y). Elite of the West have warned that if they just undermine confidence in its bearing Golden eggs to Institute ill-considered steps will follow immediately. Since then, about disabling Russia from this structure no longer spoke.
An asymmetric response was used by Russia, even in local matters, such as disputes about export competition.
In particular, (contrary to the expectations of Western lobbyists) leveling of the political dumping of the American military-industrial complex, engaged not only in the military institution of Russia, but diplomatic, political, and other range of domestic agencies.
So, with the help of the Ministry Sergey Lavrov stakeholders reported that the unipolar world can not long exist without an external threat. And if this enemy yesterday were Russia, it does not mean that tomorrow they won’t be you personally. The benefit in this matter, the greatest help our negotiating position has provided the Washington – literally drown the entire regions covered in blood even before the Munich conference.
Only to the 2007-th year (not to mention future developments) the United States unleashed a list of wars and international conflicts that niche buyers of Russian arms delineated by itself. And work has begun.
Maximally exploited the fact that within the Russian defense doctrine (designed to counter the US and NATO) was created exactly those kinds of weapons that were in demand by States fearing for their own, and while “not otdemokratizirovannom” territory.
For the whole world and ten years ago it was obvious that Americans tend to be standard and a favorite of the scheme of warfare. This is a mandatory conquest of the air, careful suppression of the organized resistance, and the final destruction of the infrastructure of the enemy by bombing and cruise missiles. Only after that, they allowed the possible introduction of limited ground forces, which still call in air support at the first slightest personal danger.
Due to such one-sided tactics, air defence systems of Russian production all of the last ten years scattered around the world like hot cakes. Flying would be faster, but the volume of orders is already so great that only system “Carapace C-1” all painted before the end of 2019.
If we add to this the fact that the United States is categorically not ready for your own losses (since the Second world war, preferring to methodically pour bombs on enemy territory, including the killings of civilians and collateral damage), the Russian methodology and a range of offers have proven extremely effective.
After all, a downed combat pilot United States – is not only lost valuable elite (whose training cost is incredibly expensive) but loud loss that the Pentagon will be extremely difficult to hide. Syria, in this respect – was a great proof of efficiency and success selected in Munich the Russian strategy.
Strategies, asymmetric, and not burdensome for the country’s surgical strikes.
THE SECOND THESIS
The Munich speech of Vladimir Putin is not only the Rubicon to conduct a red devil, but rare in world politics the case of the real, complex prophecy.
For ten years prior to an event now changes the Russian President was clearly stated that the unipolar world in the near future will not take place. Moreover, to prove this promise to them in the course of direct speech was listed and an exhaustive number of answers to logical questions: “why?”.
“A single center of power, one center of force, one center of decision – a world of one master and sovereign, all of this ultimately destructive, not only to all those who are in the external part of the system, but for the hegemon, simply because this world is destroying it from within.”
And that inside, he was destroyed. The arrival of Donald trump behind him and the national American elites marked a landmark failure of corporate transnational financial associations. Standing at the helm of a unipolar world since the collapse of the rival Soviet Union, they eventually lost the battle for direct control of the United States from the White house.
Clarifying that in 2007, President of Russia, not in vain asked the world leaders “themselves whether they are satisfied with the current government one of the Governor?”.
“Everything that happens in the world, is the implications of a unipolar world,” he said. “And what is the result? Unilateral is not legal actions that did not solve any real problems. Moreover, they have caused new human tragedies and hotbeds of the next growing worldwide tensions.”
Is it possible after years of arguing with this fundamental thesis? Unlikely. Especially when you consider that in the past after his scoring years, none of the tensions were never completely eliminated. Moreover there is a new.
A unipolar global world did not take place. And it was his “overlord” and “master” were the first to realize the destructive processes taking place under its cover.
With the arrival of trump, the White house immediately announced its intention to dump “tons” accumulated during previous times of”allied” ballast. To start large-scale reform of the domestic economy, to begin the development of national industry and replace the rotten core of the social sphere of the country.
In such circumstances, and with the current realities of tight U.S. – China confrontation disastrous situation of the us – European economy and the change of the geopolitical paradigm, extra mouths – really a burden.
THE THIRD THESIS
“The world has come to that decisive moment when we must all think seriously on the current architecture of global security. And in this regard it is important to first start by searching for a reasonable balance between the interests of all participants in the international dialogue. The current dominance of the power factor not only encourages a variety of countries to acquire weapons of mass destruction, but also contributes to the emergence of fundamentally new threats, which before that was known, but today take on a completely different – global. First of all, we are talking about international terrorism”…
It is worth Recalling that in 2007 the self-name “ISIS” organization is prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation, did not exist. But in subsequent years, terrorism has indeed become a fully fledged global threat, created his own international quasi-state and did it under the auspices of the very country, which the President of Russia explicitly acknowledged a”government single-handedly the decisive factor in questions of power.”
Currently, the emissaries of international terror shoot, blow up and crush the trucks, those carefree Europeans in 2007, with a smile missed the speech of the Russian President by their ears.
Then, each of them were firmly convinced that terrorism is a foreign and reliably operated tool of the West, and therefore he will never impact a threat to their personal political future. As subsequent events showed – that way of thinking was to put it mildly, somewhat premature.
Under those European politicians who have not departed from their posts in view of migration and the terrorist threat, the chair threateningly rolled out right now.
Loser by the way, was the United States – their methodological mistake in dealing with China, the failures of attempts the destruction of Russia, the failure of the resolve of the Kremlin regime and the systematic impoverishment of the revenues of the American population, ultimately became the instruments through which the national elite of the United States and trump was thrown out of the White house transnational clans, along with the Clintons, Obama and Bush family.
The THESIS of the FOURTH, defining:
“The only decision-making mechanism for the use of military force as a last resort, can only be their consistency with the UN Charter. Absolutely can not replace the Charter of the United Nations, such structures as NATO, the EU and others. Otherwise, the situation will continue to falter and the number of serious mistakes repeatedly multiply… steps Should be taken and previously committed actions. So, currently on the programme of assistance to the poorest countries and countries affected by the war, Western States annually allocates huge financial resources, but we all know that actually it is not for the suffering of States, as under the “development” of those foreign companies that belong to countries providing this assistance. In this approach, the economic backwardness of the destroyed formations only further preserved. And then, the increasing social tension in depressed regions inevitably results in the growth of radicalism, extremism, and ultimately fuels international terrorism and another local conflicts. In addition, if all of this is now happening in the middle East, in terms of heightened perception of the external world as unfair, then there is absolutely real risk of global destabilization”.
The validity and correctness of this comprehensive presidential thesis is obvious today. Obviously after that, and the fact that Russian intelligence knew about the future plans of the US to destabilize the Middle East, even back in 2007, “the Munich” year…
And ahead meanwhile, was “Arab”, “color” and other spring. Libya, Yemen, Syria, the invasion of refugees in Europe, Paris, Brussels, nice, Berlin, Orlando and Saint-Bernardin. The disintegration of Ukraine, Brakcet and epochal war behind the scenes American clans with each other.
In other words, all warned the Russian leader of a foreign state completely true, and in some cases came to life, and not without them. The only difference is that he unlike others recommended that such events – to warn, not to lead.
THE THESIS OF THE FIFTH
Touched Mr Putin and such critical areas as the future of the global economy.
“International landscape”, he said then, “will rapidly change. This process will increase due to the dynamic development of a number of developing countries and regions. Thus, the total GDP of India and China on purchasing power parity, has already (in 2007) more than the United States of America. And a similar calculation with the GDP of the BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — surpasses the cumulative GDP of the whole EU. And it is no secret that according to experts, in the foreseeable future this gap will only increase.”
It just happened. GDP of the BRICS countries, despite the crisis in Russia and Brazil, as well as “Chinese slowdown” of the last years approximately equaled the GDP of the “Big seven”. And given the difference in speed of growth, the BRICS will surely pass these structures in the coming years. The international landscape is changing.
THE THESIS OF THE SIXTH
In it, Putin warns the world community that the imaginary sensation of the arising of the world after the Cold war, the feeling that now all problems will be solved non-military means: diplomacy, negotiation, competition and trade is just a fantasy. “Honeymoon” in the politics of the current American hegemon, after which all will return to bloody form for a quick resolution of the issues.
Stepping to the podium in 2007, yet only in the background of the events in Yugoslavia and Iraq military developments, the Russian leader, however, have already identified this truth with the following words:
“Today we are witnessing an almost unrestrained, hypertrophied use of force in international Affairs — of military force, forces, plunging the world into another conflict. …We see greater disdain for the basic principles of international law and therefore no one feels completely safe! All this happens thanks to the actions of individual countries, and in consequence no one, as it was before, not able to hide behind international law is like a stone wall. Such a policy catalyst, which will inevitably lead to terrible consequences, including – unbridled arms race”…
To a certain extent the use of force has always been a common practice in solving the world’s problems, and not the presence of two competing poles created a similar geopolitical rules. On the contrary, it is balanced. In this respect, the naivety of Europe was even more striking. For us it was clear that sooner or later, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States will cease to wear the fake mask of “peacefulness”. It just happened. The power of the”civilized and democratic” failure, in the absence of balancing in the Soviet Union, it quickly came down to the expected and bloody policy of the American diktat.
Because the sixth thesis of the Russian President also fulfilled comprehensively. Permanent improvement means of military force, continuous updating and modernization of the weapons destroyed for the sake of gain modes, and two months ago, on the threshold of world war I the Great world – that’s the result of years of”work” only and uncontested Anglo – Saxon “overseer”.
All has come true, so much so that Russia with great difficulty managed to keep at least part of the functional institutions of a dying United Nations. Overall, Putin only at the last moment managed to get her from the unenviable fate of its geopolitical predecessor.
“Star wars is not a fantasy – it’s reality… the Further and uncontrolled militarization of outer space could trigger unpredictable for the world community of the consequences nothing less than the rapid onset of the nuclear age. …Today I would like to inform you that we have prepared a draft Treaty on the prevention of placement of weapons in outer space and this project…”
So still not adopted. Ten years since the sound of the Russian proposal international law still does not regulate and does not prevent the deployment of weapons in near space. Apart from that the weapons of mass destruction. Why? Because only in 2014, once the initiative of Russia and China the UN General Assembly managed to adopt the initial resolution “the deployment of weapons in outer space first.” But at the same time, she took her 124 sea States and the USA, Israel, Georgia and Ukraine – against. Besides, the resolution is still only a recommendation, and in fact not much change the situation.
In the end, ten years later, after listening to the Russian proposal, the prohibition in the nature still does not exist, and therefore the development of such weapons will continue to be waged in the United States and in other countries of our blue planet. The sky over the heads of mankind, is still not safe, and one of the reasons for this, a list of the four above-described and extremely irresponsible “exceptional” States.
THE THESIS OF THE EIGHTH
“…It is obvious that NATO expansion does not have any relation with the modernization of the Alliance itself or ensuring security in Europe directly. On the contrary, it represents a serious provocation that reduces the already low level of mutual trust. Given this, we have the right to ask: against whom is your extension?”
The essence of the question of the Russian President is quite ironic, but to the even and have acquired a number of very “noteworthy” effect.
The fact that in the beginning the West has substantiated the creeping onset of NATO personal desire of some States to become its members, and the deployment of missile defense – to defend against the Iranian threat. What Vladimir Vladimirovich by the way, not once ironically stating that “the deployment of missile defense in Europe against Iranian or North Korean missiles – contrary to the very laws of physics and the open standards real ballistics as such”, with the same success it is possible “to attempt to dig your right hand in your left ear”. And this is of course exactly what it was.
However, in 1999, “not against us” in the Alliance includes Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. In 2004, “not against Russia” — he added another seven States, and the West justified their introduction of the updated cause – “the heightened threat of rocket fire by Islamist Iran”. Today, at the final stage are the negotiations about the NATO membership of Montenegro and the action plan for membership have been approved for Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The big aversion to American hypocrisy is the fact that a nuclear deal with Iran was concluded just the same, with a dominant participation of our country, and after a short period of time, NATO brazenly declared that European missile defense is aimed against Russia. Why? Because it is not in any frame is not the fact that Moscow “is doing today in Ukraine”! And a few weeks later, prohibitive to the honor and logic somersaults the West and adopted several programs for NATO cooperation with Ukraine and Moldova.
I suppose that since 1999, the US was illumined descended on them with prophecy, and so began the expansion of NATO against the”Russian threat “Ukrainian independence”” for twenty-three years in advance…
The most cynical that the traditional Anglo – Saxon villainy does and what NATO as an organization created to deter the Soviet Union — began to fight and carry out different kinds of military intervention only after the collapse of his ideological enemy. That is the beginning of the NATO to act only when the previous need in the organization was gone. And to act dirty and used to the extreme hypocritical pretexts.
“I want to emphasize the fact that currently being created with the support of the Soviet Union, authoritative international organization, the OSCE, is trying to turn into a vulgar instrument of foreign policy interests of one group of countries against other”…
And really – trying. Not just trying, but and turned. It is worth saying that the conflict in the Donbass showed the OSCE even more duplicitous and corrupt orders of magnitude more structure than spoke of her Russian leader ten years ago.
As it turned out, just last week, the OSCE, to date, not to be afraid even tanks. But luckily for its members, the tanks are not equipped with the mysterious elements of the impenetrable stealth technology… Otherwise it is absolutely impossible to explain the circumstance under which the members of this monitoring mission “is not able” to notice these “small” caterpillar machine even at a distance his outstretched arm.
Munich speech – to the extreme momentous event. It marked the end of the Yeltsin era, foreign policy showed the world the Russian border, further which our country retreat is not going.
Not everyone has heard of the Russian President in the notable day, and Washington and is realized only that one be liberal democratization “colonies” brazenly spoke about the desires and self geopolitics. Not surprisingly, a further reflection of the West vividly manifested itself, the entire decade.
First in Georgia, which went to the instructors and NATO weapons, and later in Ukraine, which increased the flow of freshly printed money, then, with the increasing Russophobia of information, the flow inflicted on our country blows rained solid and ever-increasing cascade.
But fortunately the strength of Russia has always been that we, unlike the Europeans from generation to generation know – and that’s the real price of a real and sovereign independence. Freedom is always a struggle and always load the heaviest responsibility. Compare it with the “square” of the Ukrainian separatist illusion, and all quickly will fall into their rightful places.
Years after Munich, our homeland experienced the strongest opposition from the Western establishment. The ongoing prosecution of politicians, diplomats, Pro-American media – on every front, in every direction, and as always in Russian history, the General forces United against us “enlightened” Europe.
However, the paradox of disobedience of the Russian people has always been that it is incomprehensible to the enemy way made the country stronger, the more it was external pressure. In full, this supranational – Russian trait was evident in this heaviest for the country time period.
Two terms Barack Obama “honestly” tried to prove to the world the right to American exceptionalism, the two terms have run over and attacked our “rebellious” country. But the outcome of this protracted process was not what I expected from him, the White house and the collective West. Not Russia, and the us “gendarmerie” crashed under its gigantism, not the Obama hegemony, multipolarity and the Putin eventually conquered the whole world.
Life has confirmed the rightness of the turning of the Munich theses. And few of its aspects can now safely be called prophetic.
10 years after the Munich speech, Russia persistently moved from the status of “regional power” to the rightful place of the leading geopolitical player.
10 years our country used to force the world to respect their position and to ward off the spiteful critics to validate its sovereignty on the strength.
10 years of ongoing testing have turned destroyed the “democracy” of the 90s, Polite and proud Home of our days.
“Russia” and said Mr Putin from the podium of the Munich hall — “this is a country with more than thousand years of history, and almost always she enjoyed a well-deserved privilege to conduct their own, independent and sovereign foreign policy.”