The war for peace. Russia will have the choice to attack Ukraine or “feed” her the Donbass

The war for peace. Russia will have the choice to attack Ukraine or "feed" her the Donbass

In the corridors of power are whispering that autumn Vladimir Putin will announce his participation in the presidential elections in Russia. But what is it they are going and how motivated their voters? Exciting economic prospects? There are no prerequisites. Impressive social transformation? But we also said no money from the government!

Meanwhile, the date of the election – the day of reunification of Russia and Crimea leads to some speculation. Should we expect that the Kremlin is finally determined by the Donbass, and even with the whole Ukraine? And what are we waiting for war?

How did were wrong Zbigniew Brzezinski, putting an equal sign between chess and international politics! Unlike diplomats for years contemplating their triumphant moves, players are limited in terms of decision-making. But politicians sometimes have to hurry – as a rule, on the eve of their re-election. Since the adoption of the Minsk agreements has been two and a half years, and part, perhaps, managed to forget whose turn it is. The position of both sides is close to zugzwang, does not discern useful moves. And continue seems can not go on – at the end nerves and will, and resources, but also to stop – the same way: the Patriotic public would not approve. And then there’s an election coming up – it’s time for decisive action. You can attack using a suitable occasion (the benefit Kiev constantly throws up, as if inviting: here’s the pawn – ruby!). Is it possible, perhaps, to depart. Smart because in a fight do not climb, isn’t it? There’s a reason liberals are admonished: concessions to Russia its citizens understand correctly and will vote for the President-the peacemaker who returned to the Ukrainian Donbass. Yes, but is it really?

Liberal “chutzpah”

Love – let go! The logic of some decisions is difficult to comprehend and accept, if you’re sober and mentally healthy, but suggest also the leading “House-2” his players “let go” of their partners for the sake of stabilizing relationships in pairs! Pair it, as the stories of the notorious show, stabilizes not always, on the contrary, but TV program a big success a decade and a half, and therefore, the advice of leading her to trust, isn’t it?

That’s the Ukrainian political analyst Vitaly Portnikov convinces us that the best solution for election of the President of Russia to abandon support for the Donbass. Refuse – and then the Russians, appreciating the peacefulness of their leader, will vote for him again. “Towards a new presidential term, Putin would like to come in the role of guarantor of stability, explains his idea of the expert. – So the main thing think today in the Kremlin, as to leave the Donbass and not lose the face”. From Kiev Portnikova obviously know better: it is said also that a large seen from a distance, and face – to-face person can not see. But the Ukrainian manipulator meanings still blurts out: “until recently, no real border in the occupied territory was not the Donbass was a continuation of Russia, but that will never happen. Putin, of course, may think that after the rejection of Donbass will leave him alone, but he’s wrong. The West does everything right, Russia can and should be pushed through”.

However, Portnikov you can not believe, because he is on the other side of the conflict. And local experts believe, is it possible to win the presidential election, refusing to support the Donbass? So easily! “Take in the Russian Donbass, Putin can not, – explains the analyst Dmitry Oreshkin, – world politics for this would include a new cycle of sanctions. The Donbass is becoming a fetter on the neck of the President, but he is forced to carry her, although she’s getting heavier by the day. I think Putin would like to “donate” Donbass”.

The same opinion and liberal historian Andrei Zubov“People who at first enthusiastically adopted the “Russian spring”, against the background of economic decline, convinced that nothing good comes out of this venture failed. And change their attitude to Putin”. Therefore, you should turn the “Russian spring” back, and to make it easier, passing the Donbass, for example, European peacekeepers. That in turn restored the status quo in favor of Kiev. And yet the liberals claim that support for the Donbas becomes a heavy burden on the Russian economy and this burden is very heavy for us. But is it? Today in the national republics remained about 3 million residents, and is less than 2% of the population of Russia. That is, even in that case, if Moscow took to your Costa Donetsk and Lugansk, the increased spending of the Russian budget would be in the range of 2%. Our country is quite capable. Besides, in DND and LNR work of industrial enterprises, mines coal, and therefore, the Donbass is not sitting, legs dangling, on the Russian’s neck, like insist on it our room liberals.

In Yiddish there is untranslatable into Russian language, the notion of “chutzpah”. The height of cynical and blatant lies, paralyzing the opponent. When the criminal who killed his parents, asks the court’s indulgence to themselves on the grounds that he is an orphan. It seems that Russian liberals this “chutzpah” has mastered good, they perform it convincingly. “Crimea is not worth the loss that was suffered by Russia!” “From the Donbass have to go to stabilize relations with the West and Ukraine and our economy at the same time!” But the fact of the matter is that no stabilization will not occur. And in Moscow it seems to have started to understand.

“Don’t treat cancer with aspirin”

In Kiev now and not hide that the Minsk negotiation process only a useful respite in the civil war in the Donbass. You can catch your breath and save up strength. And remember that has forced the Ukrainian party to sign and has not earned the Minsk agreement? Debaltsevsky boiler who landed warriors Petro Poroshenko! Since there is neither war nor peace. Pause. But will it last?

“Near the city of Artemovsk (Bakhmut. – Ed.) maydanschikov crudely all the military equipment, which they managed to collect in the former Warsaw Pact countries, “Hyacinths”, “Hurricanes”, “Tornadoes”, says the former Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Igor Markov. – Ukraine’s move to attack, regardless of losses. They don’t care how many people will die. So we better strike first, there will be less losses. Anyway, war is inevitable, I’m talking about the third year. Cancer cannot be treated with aspirin require surgical intervention”. But whether or not our country to get involved in this war, and even for months before the election?

Let’s together count up, offhand, what today can inspire the voter. The fight against corruption? Hardly, and the best proof was scanty rallies of non-system opposition, which her entire political agenda revolves around the theft of officials. Victories in Syria? Damn these victories to the electorate. The vast majority of our citizens are unaware of what we are fighting in the middle East. Recently in Russia swept “gubernatorial”, replaced sat up in their chairs and as if all overexposed heads of regions. And that it inspired someone? Our constituents are not getting through even with speculation on a lifetime government annuity. “If I had to take and divide all income from the sale of oil and gas!” But this is a favorite dish of the average Russian – Halyava. But even she can’t stir voters. But, as soon as the experts in the TV show of Vladimir Solovyov slash spur of the moment, they say, it is time to clean up Ukraine from Bandera evil, thoroughly redeems with blood all Russia is buzzing: “a Pleasure!” So why not please the electorate, at the same time solving the problem effortless victory in the first round?

Iskander Khisamov, the political analyst (Ukraine):

– Today fully formed the ideological base of the Ukrainian regime. It is based on a Holy war against the Muscovites. From the dreary politics of nasty regime in Kiev will go to war if Russia will continue to remain in a complacent anticipation of the self-destruction of Ukraine. Mode maydanschikov based on the ideas of hatred and revenge, and he is not sorry of his people, and even more – other. And because he’s extremely dangerous. Flows fierce militant Russophobia, fourth year flood the country, will lead to irreversible consequences. Haters Russia is growing – even among those who speaks Russian and lives in the East. Make no mistake that the Ukrainians are supposedly the nicest people, brothers, just have them temporarily junta, but soon it will fade and become as nothing. No, we are not brothers, and will resolve soon, if ever, resolve. A Ukrainian phenomenon is that the “cosmopolitan huckster,” according to Saakashvili, United in one flock with a nationalist bloodsuckers. They managed to turn the country into a war machine, which in itself will not stop. Televisions continue to inspire the Russian people contempt, or at best pity for Ukraine. This is a very harmful and dangerous. Because of the current Ukraine – the enemy, no matter how scary it is to say, the enemy should be treated seriously, with respect. It seems that war is already inevitable.

Especially since the residents of the national republics it will bring the longed-for deliverance. Much as hesitated on one of the last broadcasts of “Russia-1” the head of the people’s Council DNI Dennis Pushilin, well, we all know, the Kremlin cannot afford any sudden movements in the current situation, but as we would like it to be like the Crimea! Maybe, after all, let’s go to Kiev, huh?

“What have you done for Ukraine?”

Yes, but to attack us now just ridiculous. The situation in the world is finally beginning to change in our favor. The parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe by a majority of votes adopted the resolution condemning the Kiev Rada adopted the law on education restricting the rights of national minorities, – what an unexpected twist! Meanwhile, the PACE leadership openly lobbying for the lifting of political sanctions on Moscow, and, according to the Kiev political analyst Ruslan Bortnik, crucial for Russia, the decision can be made in January. It would be foolish “to strike first”, as proposed by Igor Markov, and ruin everything, isn’t it? But, it turns out, all is not so simple. Europe is really “just waiting for a reason, strong enough to get off the subject of Ukraine, – explains the analyst Rostislav Ishchenko.

So the reason may be and denunciation maydanschikov of the Minsk agreements, and another coup in Kiev, and the transition to the active hostilities in the Donbas.” But while Europe is trying to turn face from Ukraine to Russia, believing that it holds the sides of the conflict, Washington increasingly incite Kiev to Moscow. “Americans, like maydanschikov interested in the war, – said the expert. – The Ukrainian elite is worsening with Russia to increase the pressure on Poroshenko and force him to leave early under the threat of “popular revolt”. The Americans, in turn, achieve escalation, because they run out of arguments in the Syrian campaign and they need to switch to Russian resources from the Middle East to something else, at least for Ukraine. Thus, we should expect the aggravation of the situation”. In other words, on the eve of presidential elections, such aggravation would be on hand not only Moscow but also Washington. And Europe, it seems, wants only one thing: peace with Russia and to stop losing money, supporting the policy of sanctions.

Leonid RADZIKHOVSKY, a journalist (Russia):

– The situation in Russia is hopeless. Economic growth decided to keep quiet. Next year intensified us sanctions, unpleasant not so much for the Russian economy, how much for President of Russia. The pressure continues, and there is no escape. And Putin is a new term that in a hopeless situation, you see, the pleasure is below average. I think it was planned to dismember the Ukraine, but today for the President of Russia it is far not the main problem. You need to leave, but is saving face. Under these conditions, the Donbas for him – tin can on the leg. Issuing execution of the Minsk agreements for a geopolitical victory, Russia made a big mistake. She has created a startup that went bankrupt, and everyone knows it. The question is how to continue to nourish, despite the fact that opportunities are actually there, or find a way to reset it so that psychologically, politically and economically to improve their situation. I think this is what Putin and busy, not that kind of a cunning way for some unknown reason to keep unneeded Donbass.

But the position of the Americans is dictated not only breath-taking for them the situation in Syria. “Full-fledged Russian invasion of Ukraine would be removed from the agenda the question of salvation of the Washington Ukrainian gas transport system, – explains Rostislav Ishchenko. – Moscow will be unprofitable to leave the Ukrainian “pipe” without gas, because Moscow, as planned by the Americans will have to rebuild the collapsed economy of “independence.” And anyway, today Washington comes from the fact that to introduce troops to Ukraine for Russia, maybe not the best way, but not to enter them in conditions of rapid “somaliazation” of the border States even worse.” Here is a twist! Hence, the Ukraine is the Russian army, and our country is beginning to restore the Ukrainian economy, as if we have nothing better to do – this, perhaps, the Americans have the script? I remember Boris Yeltsin insisted that every Russian should, waking to wonder: what have you done for Ukraine? And we thought he was joking.

To sum up: “the Situation in Ukraine is completely out of control of local elites, and the United States, says Rostislav Ishchenko. – In an unsuccessful attempt to overcome internal destabilization due to the emphasis on consolidation against the external enemy of the Ukrainian elite to consciously go for a direct confrontation with Russia.” “We will not have time to look, as for the Donetsk and Lugansk, followed by Kharkiv to Odessa, – predicts Igor Markov, and, oddly enough, Kiev is at hand”.

“Ukraine will fight? Yes, definitely!”

Even as at hand. Ukraine is rapidly moving towards the twilight of his state, and in the West understand it better than anywhere else.

Here’s how to evaluate the situation of the former Russian presidential adviser Andrei Illarionov, a member of the American Cato Institute: “what is happening in Ukraine, is strikingly reminiscent of what happened here in 2013. Billions of dollars in borrowing, the extremely low level of confidence in the government, persecution of political opponents. Ukraine took another 3 billion dollars, now in the West. Took the money at 7.4 per cent per annum. The country’s economic growth at 2.3% per year, and how, explain to me, you can service the loans, which are taken under 7.4% in currency? This means, you have to get the necessary funds from the pockets of Ukrainians. In the country exceeded the critical level of the debt burden. But Ukraine continues to increase the debt.” And in the West understand that the end was near. But to take responsibility for what is happening, and most importantly, the associated costs Washington does not intend to. Very useful would be Russia! The case for small – to force her to get involved in the war. To then force Moscow to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

And Washington is beginning to ripen Kiev: faster, faster! And a loyal vassal of Poroshenko takes the salute and signed a secret decree No. 313/2017 – “On the rate of the Supreme commander”. This decree, as noted by Rostislav Ishchenko, “actually enters a state of undeclared war with Russia, declaring the latter as an aggressor and occupier”. “Rate is generated when the actual entry of Ukraine into the war, regardless of its formal proclamation, – explains the expert. But actually govern the rate will not be Poroshenko, the NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov. Does this mean that Ukraine will fight? Yes, war is the only thing that is still some time to keep the integrity of the country”. It should be noted that until now, Ishchenko traditionally refrained from harsh assessments. More remarkable – and frightening! – what he says now.

But where’s start a war – unless, of course, begins? Oddly enough, not in the Donbass, according to Ukrainian experts. Most likely going up on the opposite flank. Lviv oblast – the citadel of the fiercest opponents of Petro Poroshenko. Andriy Sadovyi found a table and a shelter broke through to Ukraine, Mikhail Saakashvili, there, to Lviv, from Kiev moved the “rate” of Yulia Tymoshenko. Next, in Transcarpathia and Bukovina, growing separatist sentiments. In Uzhgorod, as a home, even without notification of Kiev, go members of the government and deputies from Budapest. Launched the “self-Determination for Transcarpathia” – Hungary clearly intends to play at the Catalan scenario. And why not, if three quarters of the region’s residents have already received a Hungarian passport? That ATO it is time to move from the Donbas to the West of the country, loudly screaming nationalists in Kiev and the loudest – the controversial, but popular among the people of Oleh Liashko. And then there are the Odessa and Kharkov, where “the fire of separatism” dimmed, but not extinguished. And it is in these cities, not in Donetsk, Lugansk started the “Russian spring” 2014. And the local armed underground, they say, though battered, but not strangled. But for Russia, the new Ukrainian pockets of fire will be the clear pretext for military intervention. Which is unlikely to oppose Washington and Brussels. And which will provide bulk and consolidated the vote on the election of the President of Russia.

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